ANALYSIS CONFIRMS NO SINGLE FACTOR AS PREDICTOR OF SPRINGFIELD TRAFFIC STOPS

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Ernie Slottag 789-2235

An analysis of the 2010 Springfield Traffic Stop Report indicates that the trend of traffic stops for the City of Springfield does not confirm any single factor as having a direct effect. Motorists are more likely to be stopped during certain times of the day and in certain locations in the city. The analysis was performed by Dr. Michael H. Hazlett, Ph. D., of Western Illinois University’s Department of Law Enforcement and Justice Administration. Dr. Hazlett has conducted all previous studies of the report for the City of Springfield.

Ethnicity and gender were far less significant as a trend or pattern for traffic stops in 2010, according to Dr. Hazlett. The study found that there is no direct effect from ethnicity or race on traffic stops. The pattern from 2005 to 2010 showed a trend of much less dependency on race as a predictor. Instead, the time of day and location were most directly related.

Dr. Hazlett also found that the “state reported” benchmark did not incorporate the census data from 2010. Therefore an overstated benchmark was used that did not reflect the current data of 24.5% of Springfield residents being non-Caucasian. And, a surprising low benchmark was identified on the west side of Springfield, which indicates there is a smaller ratio of stops of non-Caucasians than stops of Caucasians.

“What this really means is that our Police Patrol Officers are making traffic stops based upon higher crime areas and during concentrated enforcement details, rather than because of a driver’s ethnicity,” Mayor J. Michael Houston said. “The trend over the past five years shows that the disparity between Caucasian and non-Caucasian traffic stops is shrinking to the point that the numbers are a closer reflection of our population.”

Some of the significant findings of the 2010 Springfield Traffic Stop Report are:

• Non-white stops were 40.7%, 16% of non-white stops resulted in a search compared to less than 6% of Caucasian stops.

• Highest number of actual stops in Beats 200, 300, 400 and 500 , which the Chief Robert Williams attributes to being directly related to the additional enforcement detail utilized in those beats.

• Number of searches were involved in less than 9% of stops.

• The possibility of a false stop (as indicated under state law) was higher for Caucasian drivers (62%) than non-Caucasian drivers (52%).

• Highest portion of moving violations in 2010 occurred on the west side of Springfield.

• The age of the vehicle explained some of the differences in traffic stop patterns in 2010, with newer vehicles most likely to be stopped for a moving violation and vehicles older than 16 years were more likely to be stopped for license-registration and equipment violations.

• Younger drivers (under 24 years) were more likely to be stopped for equipment violations and older drivers (31 years and over) were more often stopped for moving violations.

• Nearly the same proportion of males and females were stopped for moving violations and for license-registration violations and equipment violations.

• Overall calls for service, crimes, arrests and traffic stop activity were disproportionately represented in several areas of Springfield – which Chief Williams attributes to increased patrol activity, with Beats 200 and 300 having a high rate of calls and violent crimes unequally occurred in central and east Springfield.

• Overall change across time revealed that the recorded benchmark and stop activity fell from 2005 through 2010.

• Overall stops declined in actual numbers in most areas of the city across 2005 through 2010.

• Using statistical gauges of magnitude, the strongest historical predictor of traffic stop activity was the time of day (shift) and beat location. Gender, ethnicity and age of the driver, as well as age of the vehicle stopped were less predictive of stop activities.

                A copy of Dr. Hazlett’s analysis can be downloaded from the city’s website HERE.